Dr Peter Thorburn1, Dr Cynthia Rosenzweig2
1CSIRO Agriculture and Food
2American climatologist, NASA
How can we provide stakeholders with more consistent and credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions in agriculture, bring agricultural modeling up to the same standards of global climate models and integrated assessment models (e.g., ensemble approaches, data and IT, scenario design), and overcome scale and disciplinary constraints? The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change and Food Security is linking site-based crop and livestock models with similar models run on global grids, and then links these biophysical components with economics models at regional and global scales.
The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security researchers to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development.
The multi-model, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale integrated assessment framework is using scenarios of economic development, adaptation, mitigation, food policy, and food security. These coordinated assessments are grounded in the expertise of AgMIP partners around the world, leading to more consistent results and messages for stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community. The early inclusion of nutrition and food security experts has helped to ensure that assessment outputs include important metrics upon which investment and policy decisions may be based. The CGRA builds upon existing AgMIP research groups and regional programs, with new protocols for cross-scale and cross-disciplinary linkages to ensure the propagation of expert judgment and consistent assumptions.